By Kosi Tochukwu
Nigeria’s exports to the United States plunged by N940.98 billion in the first nine months of 2025, while imports from the US more than doubled, reversing last year’s trade surplus, according to National Bureau of Statistics data.
From January to September 2025, Nigeria exported goods worth N3.65 trillion to the US, down from N4.59 trillion in the same period of 2024 a 20.5% drop. Meanwhile, imports jumped 125.5% to N6.80 trillion, leaving Nigeria with a trade deficit of about N3.15 trillion, compared with a N1.57 trillion surplus a year earlier.
The downturn coincides with the implementation of the US “reciprocal” tariff regime, which raised Nigerian tariffs on non-oil exports from 14% to 15% in August 2025. Crude oil exports were largely exempt, leaving non-oil goods to bear the brunt of the disruption.
Quarterly analysis shows exports fell from N1.54 trillion in Q1 to N743.63 billion in Q3, while imports surged from N1.42 trillion to N3.22 trillion over the same period. Non-oil exports such as cocoa, urea, and natural rubber suffered steep declines, while imports including crude oil, used vehicles, and industrial goods rose sharply.
Despite the setback, the federal government has pledged resilience. President Bola Tinubu and Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment Jumoke Oduwole emphasized that Nigeria will continue diversifying exports, boosting non-oil revenue, and expanding trade partnerships beyond the US, including Africa, Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE.
Economists also see opportunity in the challenge. Dr Aliyu Ilias of CSA Advisory noted that other countries are facing similar US tariffs, offering Nigeria a chance to forge new trade partnerships. Dr Muda Yusuf of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise said US trade exposure is limited and the bigger challenge lies in restrictive visa policies, which hamper business and investment inflows more than tariffs.
The US recently imposed travel restrictions on Nigerians and 16 other African countries, affecting business, tourism, and student visas starting January 1, 2026, citing security and overstays as justification.
The data underscores the vulnerability of Nigeria’s export earnings to external policy shifts but also highlights the government’s push for trade diversification and non-oil growth.
